The Best Mortgage Rate for You
Mortgage Centre’s rate page has a very sage title: “Is it the best rate, or the best rate for you?”
Its point being: A lot of websites claim to have the best rates, but there’s always more to the story.
For one thing, probably 95% of “best rate” claims are false. More importantly, as the Mortgage Centre rightly suggests, the lowest rate is not necessarily the best rate for you.
Unless you know who the quoted lender is, and know that lender’s criteria for credit score, debt ratio, property type, loan-to-value, income, etc., there’s no way to tell on your own if you meet their standards. (Albeit, someone proving $100,000 income the past few years, putting down 20% on a marketable home, with a 35% TDS, and an 720 beacon score, can feel confident about qualifying at most lenders [just as an example]).
Back to the point, there are lots of qualification hoops to jump through with some lenders—especially the lowest cost lenders.
Moreover, there are various economic dangers strewn about the fine print of many mortgages. Examples include:
Zero prepayment privileges
12-month interest penalties
IRD penalties based on bond yields
Fully closed terms (no way out until maturity)
Ultra-short rate-hold periods
No pre-approvals
No portability
Other annoyances:
Horrible post-closing service
Slow approval times
No online access
Unexpected fees
It is the job of mortgage planners to filter the plethora of mortgages and present the best overall value to you. When determining overall value, rate is the #1 criteria, but only after a mortgage is determined to be suitable.
There’s no downside to good advice, so get as much of it as you can. As Canadian Mortgage Professional very wisely wrote: “Homebuyers who ask mortgage professionals 'what is your best rate?' are not going to be well served by a mortgage professional that simply responds with a number.”
Friday, July 24, 2009
Monday, July 20, 2009
经典语录
挺有智慧的。。。
自己选择45°仰视别人，就休怪他人135°俯视着看你。
RalphW、Sockman说：当我们是少数时，可以测试自己的勇气；当我们是多数
时，可以测试自己的宽容。
牧羊，一辈子都在急；金牛，一辈子都在守；双子，一辈子都在徘徊；巨蟹，一
辈子都在等；狮子，一辈子都在控制；处女，一辈子都在准备；天秤，一辈子都在权
衡；天蝎，一辈子都在猜疑；射手，一辈子都在玩儿；摩羯，一辈子都在奋斗；水
瓶，一辈子都在做梦；双鱼一辈子都不知道自己在做什么。
一食人族上班，经理再三交代不能吃同事，答应。过几天忍不住，偷吃一个清洁
工人，当即被发现。其感悟是：千万别吃真正做事的人。
李碧华说过：什么叫多余？夏天的棉袄，冬天的蒲扇，还有等我已经心冷后你的殷勤。
很多时候你只是某个人的练爱对象而非恋爱对象。
钱钟书先生对杨绛女士有这样一段评价，后来被社会学家视为理想婚姻的典范：
1、在遇到她以前，我从未想过结婚的事。
2、和她在一起这么多年，从未后悔过娶她做妻子。
3、也从未想过娶别的女人。
个人感觉，在网络上要转向“慢”了，资讯越快，越是要等几天让事实浮现，第一
时间人肉，第一时间谴责，第一时间落泪，都无太多必要。
我爸面对我发胖一事发表了看法：没有韩红的命，还得了韩红的病。
你来我信你不会走，你走我当你没来过。——我们该这样对待缘分与爱。
你觉得别人牛B，他不一定觉得你牛B，但你要觉得别人傻B，在他眼里你也是一傻
B，所以我认为牛B像单恋，傻B则是两情相悦。
“上了年纪最大的好处就是：年轻时得不到的东西，现在你不想要了。”
世界上所有男人都是骗子。不管是漂亮还是不漂亮的女人都会被骗。有所不同的
是，幸运的女人找到了一个大骗子，骗了她一辈子。不幸的女人找到了一个小骗
子，骗了她一阵子。
人最软弱的地方，是舍不得。舍不得一段不再精采的感情，舍不得一份虚荣，舍
不得掌声。我们永远以为最好的日子是会很长很长的，不必那麽快离开。就在我们心
软和缺乏勇气的时候，最好的日子毫不留情地逝去了。
一日不读书，无人看得出；一周不读书，开始会爆粗；一月不读书，智商输给猪。
当前我国女性成功大概有如下四种途径：第一，学好英语，嫁老外。第二，学好
英语，出国读书，嫁老外。第三，学好英语，出国读书，学成归国，嫁老外。第
四，学好英语，出国读书，学成归国，努力打拼，嫁老外。
如果你不是经常遇到挫折，这表明你做的事情没有很大的创新性-伍迪、艾伦
两个人在一起，更多的不是改变了对方，而是接受了，所以说包容呢，如果光想着改变，那不是生活，那是战争。
一切问题最终都是时间问题，一切烦恼其实都是自寻烦恼。
人永远不知道谁哪次不经意的跟你说了再见之后就真的再也不见了。
通往成功的路，总是在施工中。
下车时导游小姐说：“请带好您的贵重物品。”他拉着我的手说：“快走，贵重物品”。
猜一句英文：「ABABBBAAAAAABBBABAAAABBBBAABBBAAAAA」？答案：
LongtimenoC
我也不是非你不可。你也不是非我不可。真是一场误会。
想你的眉目，想到模糊。——突然觉得，思念大都如此，越来越淡
在经年后，感叹，那两个少年：一个惊艳了时光，一个温柔了岁月。
你永远也无法理解，为了让自己对生活发生兴趣，我们付出了多大的努力。
如果她（他）对你说：”忘了我吧。＂你告诉对方：”我一直没记住。＂
史上最神秘的部门：有关部门；史上最神秘的人：知情人士；史上最权威的人：砖家叫兽。
“恋”是个很强悍的字。它的上半部取自“变态”的“变”，下半部取自“变态”的“态”
就算是一坨屎，也有遇见屎壳郎的那天。
是这样的张总，妳在家里的电脑上按了CTRL C，然后在公司的电脑上再按CTRL V是
肯定不行的。即使同一篇文章也不行。不不，多贵的电脑都不行。
自己选择45°仰视别人，就休怪他人135°俯视着看你。
RalphW、Sockman说：当我们是少数时，可以测试自己的勇气；当我们是多数
时，可以测试自己的宽容。
牧羊，一辈子都在急；金牛，一辈子都在守；双子，一辈子都在徘徊；巨蟹，一
辈子都在等；狮子，一辈子都在控制；处女，一辈子都在准备；天秤，一辈子都在权
衡；天蝎，一辈子都在猜疑；射手，一辈子都在玩儿；摩羯，一辈子都在奋斗；水
瓶，一辈子都在做梦；双鱼一辈子都不知道自己在做什么。
一食人族上班，经理再三交代不能吃同事，答应。过几天忍不住，偷吃一个清洁
工人，当即被发现。其感悟是：千万别吃真正做事的人。
李碧华说过：什么叫多余？夏天的棉袄，冬天的蒲扇，还有等我已经心冷后你的殷勤。
很多时候你只是某个人的练爱对象而非恋爱对象。
钱钟书先生对杨绛女士有这样一段评价，后来被社会学家视为理想婚姻的典范：
1、在遇到她以前，我从未想过结婚的事。
2、和她在一起这么多年，从未后悔过娶她做妻子。
3、也从未想过娶别的女人。
个人感觉，在网络上要转向“慢”了，资讯越快，越是要等几天让事实浮现，第一
时间人肉，第一时间谴责，第一时间落泪，都无太多必要。
我爸面对我发胖一事发表了看法：没有韩红的命，还得了韩红的病。
你来我信你不会走，你走我当你没来过。——我们该这样对待缘分与爱。
你觉得别人牛B，他不一定觉得你牛B，但你要觉得别人傻B，在他眼里你也是一傻
B，所以我认为牛B像单恋，傻B则是两情相悦。
“上了年纪最大的好处就是：年轻时得不到的东西，现在你不想要了。”
世界上所有男人都是骗子。不管是漂亮还是不漂亮的女人都会被骗。有所不同的
是，幸运的女人找到了一个大骗子，骗了她一辈子。不幸的女人找到了一个小骗
子，骗了她一阵子。
人最软弱的地方，是舍不得。舍不得一段不再精采的感情，舍不得一份虚荣，舍
不得掌声。我们永远以为最好的日子是会很长很长的，不必那麽快离开。就在我们心
软和缺乏勇气的时候，最好的日子毫不留情地逝去了。
一日不读书，无人看得出；一周不读书，开始会爆粗；一月不读书，智商输给猪。
当前我国女性成功大概有如下四种途径：第一，学好英语，嫁老外。第二，学好
英语，出国读书，嫁老外。第三，学好英语，出国读书，学成归国，嫁老外。第
四，学好英语，出国读书，学成归国，努力打拼，嫁老外。
如果你不是经常遇到挫折，这表明你做的事情没有很大的创新性-伍迪、艾伦
两个人在一起，更多的不是改变了对方，而是接受了，所以说包容呢，如果光想着改变，那不是生活，那是战争。
一切问题最终都是时间问题，一切烦恼其实都是自寻烦恼。
人永远不知道谁哪次不经意的跟你说了再见之后就真的再也不见了。
通往成功的路，总是在施工中。
下车时导游小姐说：“请带好您的贵重物品。”他拉着我的手说：“快走，贵重物品”。
猜一句英文：「ABABBBAAAAAABBBABAAAABBBBAABBBAAAAA」？答案：
LongtimenoC
我也不是非你不可。你也不是非我不可。真是一场误会。
想你的眉目，想到模糊。——突然觉得，思念大都如此，越来越淡
在经年后，感叹，那两个少年：一个惊艳了时光，一个温柔了岁月。
你永远也无法理解，为了让自己对生活发生兴趣，我们付出了多大的努力。
如果她（他）对你说：”忘了我吧。＂你告诉对方：”我一直没记住。＂
史上最神秘的部门：有关部门；史上最神秘的人：知情人士；史上最权威的人：砖家叫兽。
“恋”是个很强悍的字。它的上半部取自“变态”的“变”，下半部取自“变态”的“态”
就算是一坨屎，也有遇见屎壳郎的那天。
是这样的张总，妳在家里的电脑上按了CTRL C，然后在公司的电脑上再按CTRL V是
肯定不行的。即使同一篇文章也不行。不不，多贵的电脑都不行。
呵呵。。。
The Critical Piece to the China Plan: A Managed Currency
A Managed Currency
by Bryan Rich
Dear Subscriber,
 |
China's the largest country in the world by population, the third-largest economy and the third-largest exporter. It's also the owner of over $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves.
And in the worst global recession since the Great Depression, it's the only large economy that's growing! But it's also the most restricted and least transparent of the bunch.
So how did China amass such a position in the global economy? And how does one country gather 29 percent of all international reserve assets?
The common notion is that it all boils down to trade ... countries running trade surpluses (net exporters) accumulate wealth from countries running trade deficits (net importers).
But for China, reserve accumulation and economic growth has as much or more to do with its exchange rate policy as it does with huge trade surpluses ...
You see, exports have been, and are, the key driver of growth in China. And when dollar-based investments and revenues flow into China, converting those inflows to the yuan puts upward pressure on China's currency. This upward pressure threatens to strengthen the yuan, making it less competitive on a global stage for trade.
 |
| China needs a weak currency to keep its exports high and factories humming. |
China doesn't want that ... China needs a weak yuan to continue exporting its way to growth. That's why the Chinese central bank manages the value of its currency.
To offset the local demand to exchange U.S. dollars for yuan, the central bank takes the other side — selling yuan and buying dollars. This keeps the exchange rate stable, and China builds vast amounts of dollar reserves.
The Weak Currency Advantage ...
For a decade, China maintained a fixed exchange rate policy — the yuan was pegged against the dollar. One U.S. dollar bought 8.27 yuan. This allowed China to undercut the rest of the world, churning out cheap commoditized goods, competing on one thing: Price.
Consequently, the Chinese economy shot up from $728 billion to $2.3 trillion.
But in 2005, China changed its currency policy. It abandoned the peg.
After political tensions rose between China and its key trading partners, namely the U.S., China adopted a "managed float." Under this policy China agreed to let the yuan trade in a defined daily trading band, while gradually allowing it to appreciate. This was China's way of pacifying its trading partners while maintaining complete control over its currency.
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Over the next three years the Chinese yuan climbed 17 percent against the dollar, enough to ease a politically sensitive issue, but far less than the relative economic growth would warrant. In fact, China's economy grew by 43 percent while the U.S. economy grew only 10 percent.
If China's currency was determined by market forces, the relative outperformance would:
- Drive investments into China ...
- Drive up the value of the yuan ...
- And drive down the value of the U.S. dollar.
This currency dynamic would slow exports in China and make exports in the U.S. more appealing. A natural balancing mechanism.
But not only has China been very slow to let the yuan strengthen, thus protecting its export model, it's virtually put the brakes on currency appreciation altogether since the inception of the global financial crisis.
The chart below shows the move from a peg, to a managed float, and back to what is effectively a pegged exchange rate ...
Source: Bloomberg
China has been moving, however, on another area of its currency policy — the international use of the yuan in trade.
Until this month, trading of yuan had been heavily restricted by the government — authorized only within mainland China and only through China's agent banks.
Therefore, Chinese companies could not settle foreign trade in yuan. Most international trade was priced in U.S. dollars and settled in U.S. dollars, creating the burgeoning foreign currency reserves I mentioned above.
Now for the first time, China is relaxing restrictions and allowing the yuan to trade offshore with select Asian neighboring countries. This is a first step in China's attempt to temper growth in its foreign currency reserves and to make the yuan a globally traded currency.
But the yuan lacks appeal as an international currency. After all, there are hurdles associated with managing currency risk of the yuan, especially because the government controls its value!
China's Unfair Advantage ...
As a currency manipulator, China is in violation of WTO rules. Yet its trade partners have been hesitant to levy that charge. Instead, led by the U.S., they they've taken a diplomatic approach, encouraging China to move toward a market determined (or free-floating) exchange rate.
 |
| A manipulated yuan could result in skyrocketing tariffs on Chinese goods. |
But China doesn't seem to have any intention on giving up its key mechanism for controlling its competitive advantage on the world stage. Why would they?
Moreover, China is now furthering its efforts to create and protect its advantage.
This time, though, its trading partners are putting up a fight. Both the U.S. and Europe recently filed a complaint with the WTO. They accused China of limiting exports of raw materials to the rest of the world, giving an unfair advantage to its domestic manufacturers.
And here's my point: Many perceive China to have the position of strength over the world economy. But with an economy so dependent on a manipulated currency and maintaining unfair trade advantages, resistance from global trading partners could reverse that perception very quickly.
Remember, it wasn't too long ago that a couple of U.S. Senators were passing around a bill to hit Chinese goods with a 27.5 percent tariff!
Regards,
Bryan
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.
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Saturday, July 18, 2009
JULY/18/2009 > 加拿大滋滋作响的炎夏即将到来
如今已是夏季，加拿大人穿着短裤却瑟瑟发抖，这不禁令人在想这个夏季是怎么了。
加拿大环境局(Environment Canada)资深气象学家菲利普斯(David Phillips)称，从阿省Banff到纽芬兰省Botwood的大部分加拿大人都在想，“热天到底什么时候到来？”
菲利普斯称，如果现在7月份已经结束，那么这将是大草原诸省(the Prairies)史上最冷的7月。但是，他强调，毕竟这个7月还没有结束。
周四发布的最新天气预报称，滋滋作响的炎夏即将到来。7月份中旬至8月份中旬，加拿大全国大部分地区的气温将超过往常或接近往常。
菲利普斯称，我们有理由乐观，但是同时也要知道天气就像娃娃的脸，说变就变。
加拿大环境局(Environment Canada)资深气象学家菲利普斯(David Phillips)称，从阿省Banff到纽芬兰省Botwood的大部分加拿大人都在想，“热天到底什么时候到来？”
菲利普斯称，如果现在7月份已经结束，那么这将是大草原诸省(the Prairies)史上最冷的7月。但是，他强调，毕竟这个7月还没有结束。
周四发布的最新天气预报称，滋滋作响的炎夏即将到来。7月份中旬至8月份中旬，加拿大全国大部分地区的气温将超过往常或接近往常。
菲利普斯称，我们有理由乐观，但是同时也要知道天气就像娃娃的脸，说变就变。
本那比荣膺加国最佳管理城市 素里第三
北美中文网综合报道：最新发布的“全国最佳管理城市调查报告”显示，大温地区有三个城市跻身加拿大最佳管理城市前十名，其中本那比名列全国最佳管理城市榜首，素里和温哥华是分别排名第三和第四，第二名则为沙省沙斯卡通。
据本地电台NEWS1130报道，这份调查报告由加拿大时事杂志《麦克琳》（Maclean's Magazine）发布。该杂志称，此次评比包含税收、交通运输、经济发展等多项指标。评选发现，本那比没有负债、环保好、行政效率也比较高，在环境、文化，经济发展、市政服务等方面都拿下全国最高分，因此成为最佳管理城市排行榜中的第一名。
附：加拿大最佳管理城市前十名
1. 本那比 Burnaby, B.C.
2. 沙斯卡通 Saskatoon
3. 素里 Surrey, B.C.
4. 温哥华 Vancouver
5. 浪基 Longueil, Que.
6. 西尔布鲁克 Sherbrooke, Que.
7. 伦敦 London, Ont.
8. 圣约翰 Saint John, N.B.
9. 魁北克 Quebec City
10. 多伦多 Toronto
据本地电台NEWS1130报道，这份调查报告由加拿大时事杂志《麦克琳》（Maclean's Magazine）发布。该杂志称，此次评比包含税收、交通运输、经济发展等多项指标。评选发现，本那比没有负债、环保好、行政效率也比较高，在环境、文化，经济发展、市政服务等方面都拿下全国最高分，因此成为最佳管理城市排行榜中的第一名。
附：加拿大最佳管理城市前十名
1. 本那比 Burnaby, B.C.
2. 沙斯卡通 Saskatoon
3. 素里 Surrey, B.C.
4. 温哥华 Vancouver
5. 浪基 Longueil, Que.
6. 西尔布鲁克 Sherbrooke, Que.
7. 伦敦 London, Ont.
8. 圣约翰 Saint John, N.B.
9. 魁北克 Quebec City
10. 多伦多 Toronto
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Understanding Leveraged ETFs
SRC: MONEY & MARKETS
Understanding Leveraged ETFs by Ron Rowland
Dear Subscriber,
You've probably heard about leveraged ETFs: Funds designed to deliver twice or even three times the return of their benchmarks.
Just last week, ProShares launched the first triple-leveraged ETFs tied to the S&P 500 index. ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) is a 3x ETF for bulls, while ProShares UltraPro Bear S&P 500 (SPXU) is a 3x leveraged inverse ETF.
What a deal! Wouldn't it be great to double or triple your gains? Far be it from me to throw water on the party, but I have to tell you it's not quite so simple.
Yes, leveraged ETFs can be very useful in some circumstances. But before you put a penny into any leveraged ETF, you need to know exactly what you're getting into.
How They Work ...
The good news is that leveraged ETFs almost always do what they're designed to do. The bad news is that way too many investors don't understand what these ETFs are designed to do — and expect more than the fund sponsors ever promised to deliver.
Don't take this car off road!
Think about it this way: If you want to crash your way through the forest, you buy a Hummer. If your goal is to win a drag race, you get a souped-up Chevy.
But if you try to drive the Chevy across a river, you probably won't make it, any more than you can hit 150 mph in the Hummer. In either case, you've chosen a vehicle that is unsuitable for your purpose. Blaming the manufacturer is pointless; they never told you to use their products as you did.
What people don't understand about leveraged ETFs: The 2x or 3x leverage factor can change dramatically, depending how long you own the fund. That's because the leverage is reset every day.
This means that even if a leveraged ETF's benchmark moves sideways, its value could still melt away like butter in a microwave oven.
Over time, the result can be a huge mismatch between what you think you should get and what you actually do get. In nearly every case, the long-term performance of both the long and inverse versions of leveraged ETFs will underperform their benchmark indexes.
The graph to the left gives a quick illustration: Suppose your benchmark index goes up from 100 to 105 in one day. That's a 5 percent gain. Then the next day it drops back to where it started at 100. Then the next day back to 105, then back to 100, and so on.
By the time 10 days have passed, the index is back at 100, and an unleveraged investor is at break-even. But a 3x long ETF (green line) based on this index will actually have dropped about 7 percent under the same conditions. A 3x inverse ETF (red line) will be down almost 14 percent!
Why is this?
It's the magic of compounding at work, only this time it's working against you. Every day you hold one of these ETFs, your leverage factor drifts a little bit away from where you started at 3x. And if it moves the wrong direction, suddenly you have to dig yourself out of a hole.
Typically the difference isn't much on any one day. But if you stay in the position for long, the difference will be dramatic — especially if the market you're trading makes a big swing.
Let's look at a real-world example ...
Suppose last November, when everyone thought the banking system was about to collapse like a house of cards, you decided to buy Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ). This is an inverse leveraged ETF that is based on the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index.
Internal Sponsorship
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There's no question that, with better timing, you could buy lower ... sell higher ... and make more money. In Solving the Timing Mystery Part Two, we revealed the missing piece of the timing puzzle.
This historic event shed light on an approach that has accurately forecast virtually every major turning point in the markets for decades. Don't miss your chance to watch this landmark event FREE!
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On November 6, 2008, the index value closed at 720.446. Five months later, on April 6, 2009, the index ended the day at 520.629, for a drop of 27.7 percent.
So how do you think FAZ performed during this time? As an inverse fund, it should go up as the index goes down — and because FAZ is leveraged by a factor of three, your gain should be amplified three times over, right?
You might calculate that FAZ would have gone up 83.1 percent for this period (27.7 x 3 = 83.1).
Wrong ...
In fact, FAZ actually fell 76.9 percent! Even if you correctly guessed that the financial sector would fall in this period, FAZ didn't help you profit from your forecast if you held it the entire time. Quite the opposite — you lost money despite being right about the market's direction.
Source: Bloomberg
How can this be? Is Direxion at fault? No, not at all. Their fund does exactly what the prospectus said it will do: Deliver a 3x inverse daily return on the index. Compounding — and your own decision to buy and sell FAZ when you did — are responsible for the rest.
Of course, if you get the timing right, the results can be spectacular!
For example, if you were lucky enough to buy FAZ on January 6 of this year and sell on January 20, you racked up a sweet gain of more than 160 percent. The index only fell by about 32 percent during that time, so your leverage wasn't 3x — it was more like 5x!
This would have been a nice gain. But still, if you knew ahead of time you would be investing with such high leverage, would you have done it? The answer will depend on how aggressive of an investor you are, and how much confidence you have in your ability to time the markets.
Bottom Line: Leveraged ETFs Can Be Great,But You Must Use Them Correctly!
Leveraged ETFs are mainly intended for short-term trading. And by short-term, I mean a few days at most. Stick around any longer and the results will start to vary wildly.
Market regulators are starting to realize this. Just last month, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or FINRA, warned brokers that leveraged ETFs are too risky for investors who intend to hold for more than one day. Unfortunately, most stock brokers don't understand how leverage works, either.
If you're a day trader or have an expert guiding you, leveraged ETFs can make you a heap of money.
On the other hand, if you're a day trader — someone who watches the market minute-by-minute and closes out your positions every evening — then leveraged ETFs can be a great tool.
They can also be useful over longer periods if you know what to expect and watch your ETFs like a hawk, or if you have someone trustworthy watching them for you.
The sponsors of these ETFs are doing their best to educate investors, but it's hard to get the message out. Here are links where you can get information: DirexionShares, ProShares, and RydexShares. I highly recommend you take some time to educate yourself on these ETFs before you use them on your own.
Best wishes,
Ron
Understanding Leveraged ETFs by Ron Rowland
Dear Subscriber,
You've probably heard about leveraged ETFs: Funds designed to deliver twice or even three times the return of their benchmarks.
Just last week, ProShares launched the first triple-leveraged ETFs tied to the S&P 500 index. ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) is a 3x ETF for bulls, while ProShares UltraPro Bear S&P 500 (SPXU) is a 3x leveraged inverse ETF.
What a deal! Wouldn't it be great to double or triple your gains? Far be it from me to throw water on the party, but I have to tell you it's not quite so simple.
Yes, leveraged ETFs can be very useful in some circumstances. But before you put a penny into any leveraged ETF, you need to know exactly what you're getting into.
How They Work ...
The good news is that leveraged ETFs almost always do what they're designed to do. The bad news is that way too many investors don't understand what these ETFs are designed to do — and expect more than the fund sponsors ever promised to deliver.
Don't take this car off road!
Think about it this way: If you want to crash your way through the forest, you buy a Hummer. If your goal is to win a drag race, you get a souped-up Chevy.
But if you try to drive the Chevy across a river, you probably won't make it, any more than you can hit 150 mph in the Hummer. In either case, you've chosen a vehicle that is unsuitable for your purpose. Blaming the manufacturer is pointless; they never told you to use their products as you did.
What people don't understand about leveraged ETFs: The 2x or 3x leverage factor can change dramatically, depending how long you own the fund. That's because the leverage is reset every day.
This means that even if a leveraged ETF's benchmark moves sideways, its value could still melt away like butter in a microwave oven.
Over time, the result can be a huge mismatch between what you think you should get and what you actually do get. In nearly every case, the long-term performance of both the long and inverse versions of leveraged ETFs will underperform their benchmark indexes.
The graph to the left gives a quick illustration: Suppose your benchmark index goes up from 100 to 105 in one day. That's a 5 percent gain. Then the next day it drops back to where it started at 100. Then the next day back to 105, then back to 100, and so on.
By the time 10 days have passed, the index is back at 100, and an unleveraged investor is at break-even. But a 3x long ETF (green line) based on this index will actually have dropped about 7 percent under the same conditions. A 3x inverse ETF (red line) will be down almost 14 percent!
Why is this?
It's the magic of compounding at work, only this time it's working against you. Every day you hold one of these ETFs, your leverage factor drifts a little bit away from where you started at 3x. And if it moves the wrong direction, suddenly you have to dig yourself out of a hole.
Typically the difference isn't much on any one day. But if you stay in the position for long, the difference will be dramatic — especially if the market you're trading makes a big swing.
Let's look at a real-world example ...
Suppose last November, when everyone thought the banking system was about to collapse like a house of cards, you decided to buy Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ). This is an inverse leveraged ETF that is based on the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index.
Internal Sponsorship
Solving the Timing MysteryPart TWO is GOING OFFLINE SOON!
There's no question that, with better timing, you could buy lower ... sell higher ... and make more money. In Solving the Timing Mystery Part Two, we revealed the missing piece of the timing puzzle.
This historic event shed light on an approach that has accurately forecast virtually every major turning point in the markets for decades. Don't miss your chance to watch this landmark event FREE!
Click here to learn more about investment timing ...
On November 6, 2008, the index value closed at 720.446. Five months later, on April 6, 2009, the index ended the day at 520.629, for a drop of 27.7 percent.
So how do you think FAZ performed during this time? As an inverse fund, it should go up as the index goes down — and because FAZ is leveraged by a factor of three, your gain should be amplified three times over, right?
You might calculate that FAZ would have gone up 83.1 percent for this period (27.7 x 3 = 83.1).
Wrong ...
In fact, FAZ actually fell 76.9 percent! Even if you correctly guessed that the financial sector would fall in this period, FAZ didn't help you profit from your forecast if you held it the entire time. Quite the opposite — you lost money despite being right about the market's direction.
Source: Bloomberg
How can this be? Is Direxion at fault? No, not at all. Their fund does exactly what the prospectus said it will do: Deliver a 3x inverse daily return on the index. Compounding — and your own decision to buy and sell FAZ when you did — are responsible for the rest.
Of course, if you get the timing right, the results can be spectacular!
For example, if you were lucky enough to buy FAZ on January 6 of this year and sell on January 20, you racked up a sweet gain of more than 160 percent. The index only fell by about 32 percent during that time, so your leverage wasn't 3x — it was more like 5x!
This would have been a nice gain. But still, if you knew ahead of time you would be investing with such high leverage, would you have done it? The answer will depend on how aggressive of an investor you are, and how much confidence you have in your ability to time the markets.
Bottom Line: Leveraged ETFs Can Be Great,But You Must Use Them Correctly!
Leveraged ETFs are mainly intended for short-term trading. And by short-term, I mean a few days at most. Stick around any longer and the results will start to vary wildly.
Market regulators are starting to realize this. Just last month, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or FINRA, warned brokers that leveraged ETFs are too risky for investors who intend to hold for more than one day. Unfortunately, most stock brokers don't understand how leverage works, either.
If you're a day trader or have an expert guiding you, leveraged ETFs can make you a heap of money.
On the other hand, if you're a day trader — someone who watches the market minute-by-minute and closes out your positions every evening — then leveraged ETFs can be a great tool.
They can also be useful over longer periods if you know what to expect and watch your ETFs like a hawk, or if you have someone trustworthy watching them for you.
The sponsors of these ETFs are doing their best to educate investors, but it's hard to get the message out. Here are links where you can get information: DirexionShares, ProShares, and RydexShares. I highly recommend you take some time to educate yourself on these ETFs before you use them on your own.
Best wishes,
Ron
Friday, July 3, 2009
神奇的網站--看到美国幾乎每一間房子的估計價值
神奇的網站--看到美国幾乎每一間房子的估計價值
點進去，輸入地區，可以用類似 google map的地圖，看到幾乎每一間房子的估計價值，注意喔，是幾乎每一間！！！而且還包括該房屋的一些資訊，例如幾房幾廳幾衛，室內坪數（這邊是用平方英呎）等等，真的要說，真是太神奇了！
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Money and Markets: Will China Lead the World Out of Recession? I Still Have My Doubts ...
I Still Have My Doubts ...
by Claus Vogt
Dear Subscriber,
 |
The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the freight rates for dry cargo traveling by ship, hit an all time high of 11,793 on May 5, 2008. Then it plunged to 663 on December 5, a decline of 94.4 percent. It was as if trade was coming to a standstill. However, freight rates soon started to recover ...
Since its December low, the index is up to approximately 4,000 for a whopping gain of some 500 percent! And the "green shoot" crowd is pointing to this surge as proof of the revival in world trade, even though the index is still down 68.6 percent from its May 2008 high.
Take a look at the chart below, and you'll see that this index has a very volatile history ...
The recession started in December 2007. But the Baltic Dry Index made its all time high five months later! So if you compare it to the business cycle, an important conclusion can be drawn: This index does not qualify as a leading economic indicator. At best it may be a coincident indicator ... and it's probably a lagging one.
So to use its current rebound as proof of a recovery in the world economy is, well, somewhat aspiring.
What the Index Is Actually Showing:
Chinese Inventory Buildups and
Speculation ...
The bulls argue that the jump in shipping rates, as shown in the Baltic Dry Index, indicates rising commodity demand and thus the revival of the world economy. But I think we have to look at China to get some important insights concerning this superficial argument ...
China's commodity imports have skyrocketed during the past months because of two important reasons:
 |
| Inventory buildup and speculation by the Chinese are driving commodity prices higher. |
- The Chinese are reported to have taken advantage of beaten-down commodity prices to build their strategic reserves. That makes a lot of sense for a commodity hungry country like China and can be seen as part of a typical inventory build up after a huge slump. This may be the prelude of a recovery. But it may also turn out to be just part of an inventory cycle due for another slump if no recovery shows up.
- There seems to be a commodity speculation frenzy going on in China. Many corporations have begun storing much more commodities than needed. This means that they're speculating on rising prices in a big way! On June 22, Bloomberg reported that China may begin a 'crackdown' on such speculation. And if the Chinese government has admitted speculation could be a problem, it has to be huge!
In 2008, hedge funds became the big victims when commodity prices nosedived. This time, Chinese corporations may be the main sufferers. And this may turn out to be an important aspect in evaluating the soundness of the Chinese recovery currently underway.
Other Freight Rates
Are Still Falling ...
The importance of Chinese commodity hording and speculation becomes clearer when looking at other freight rates.
For instance, container vessels reflect the movements of goods instead of raw materials. So their behavior is more representative of what's going on with sales of finished goods. And they exclude any possible commodity speculations.
| Internal Sponsorship |
Another grand-slam homerun! You asked us for a better way to TIME your "buy" and "sell" decisions and we just delivered it all to you on a silver platter. The missing piece of the investment timing puzzle is online now and it's FREE! Nearly 60,000 investors were on hand for the event and the positive responses are overwhelming. Don't miss your chance to view this landmark event online at absolutely no cost to you! Click here to learn more about Solving the Timing Mystery ... |
According to Germany's Commerzbank, freight rates of container vessels are down 75 percent from early 2008. More importantly, they declined by almost 30 percent this year and hit a new low in June.
This development does not bode well for world trade. And it shows that commodity prices may be at risk of a renewed slump. Speculation can go only so far!
The Decoupling Myth Revived ...
Two short years ago there was much talk about a decoupling of the Asian emerging markets from the U.S. However, since the U.S. was — and still is — the most important client of the Asian, export-oriented growth countries, I didn't buy that argument. Hence I expected the recession to become a global event ... a recession that was loudly heralded by an inverse U.S. yield curve and by the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
 |
| Will China lead the world out of its economic slump? |
Sure enough, the U.S. economy took the lead and the rest of the world followed suit. And no decoupling took place.
Two years, a recession, and a severe bear market later, a variation of the same story is back in vogue. But can the Asian emerging markets, especially China, lead the world economy out of the slump. Is this story probable?
Mammoth Government Stimulus ...
Like so many other countries, China's answer to the global recession was massive stimulus. And why not? China never swore off communism, so government interventions are fully conforming to their political credo.
So far, the country's stimulus program has amounted to $585 billion, and the central bank triggered an explosion in credit by scrapping quotas on lending in November 2008.
As you can see in the chart below, that's exactly when the Chinese stock market bottomed ...
Now the index is up 78 percent from its November low. But even so, it's still down 50 percent from its October 2007 high.
Obviously, the huge stimulus and money printing by the Chinese central bank has already had some impact on their stock market. And the positive chart pattern suggests even more to come — after an overdue correction, that is.
On top of that, the stimulus has invoked the aforementioned wave of commodity speculation.
Put simply, easy money is sloshing around and chasing financial and commodity prices higher. But that is definitely not the government's desired goal!
So the big question is ...
How is China's Real Economy
Responding to the Stimulus?
In May, China's exports fell by a record amount ... down 26.4 percent from a year earlier. In June the government said unemployment was worsening, and a quick rebound in trade was becoming less likely. The State Council even said that "the foundations for an economic recovery aren't solid." And Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan added that trade faces "unprecedented difficulties."
Moreover, on June 22, Bloomberg reported that China Shipping Container Lines Co., the country's second-biggest box carrier, plans to almost double rates on Asia-Europe routes next month to help offset possible losses on weakening demand.
None of this sounds bullish to me!
Yes, China's economy is still growing, but a global growth engine? I still have my doubts. Emerging markets have always been and still are a leveraged play on the U.S., and if the world economy is due for a recovery, it has to come from its major force ¯ the U.S.
Bottom line: China may be on its way to displace the U.S. as the world's major economy and growth engine. But it has not yet done so.
Best wishes,
Claus
About Money and Markets
世界十五大名表"入门款"带你踏入名表豪门(组图)
http://news.wenxuecity.com/messages/200906/news-gb2312-878834.html
在20世纪初，当时显赫的钟表品牌中并没有什么所谓的“入门款式”之说。每家少量的产品都是为各国贵族服务的，此类表款极尽讨巧之能事，浮华装饰之风盛行了很久很久，老百姓根本使用不起那些名贵的计时工具。可两次世界大战及遍布全球的民族解放运动，再加上二战之后西方世界财富新贵的兴起，旧有的贵族势力即使尚保有原先的封号，他们拥有的财富和权力也已大不如前。那些制造尊贵表款的品牌陆续丧失他们原先稳定的客户群。名表没多少人消费得起了，难道只等工厂倒闭？放下身段，又会不会把品牌的百年基业毁掉呢？两难的选择，变与不变始终没有公论。
到了1973年，西方世界又一次巨大变革之际，新的变化出现。这场变化率先从老牌珠宝钟表商卡地亚开始。Hocq先生和Perrin先生在忠于品牌传统风格的同时，天才地开创了全新“Must”概念，决心面对日趋年轻化又不是很富有的广大客户，相继推出石英机芯镀金腕表、大小皮具、书写工具、香水等多元化产品，整体以一个更亲善的面貌打动着世上每一个人。同时，全球性的卡地亚连锁店也已初具规模。卡地亚采用这样的积极方式首先成功应对了“石英革命”的冲击。(要知道“石英革命”曾对瑞士传统制表业造成过深重的打击。)最终卡地亚取得全面胜利，被外人看作自降身价的举动，给公司带来了巨大的利润。贵族消失了，而更多生活好起来老百姓却愿意为比自己消费水平略高的东西多花些钱。这个时候“入门款式”、“产品链”等概念相继出现，现代奢侈品行业的雏形基本构建完成。
从表面理解，每个品牌的“入门款式”就是这个牌子产品中售价最便宜的款式。但对于腕表来说，事情可没有这么简单。
作为品牌门槛的表款，身上肩负的重担不轻！它们的价格虽相对低廉，而身上具备的品牌文化烙印却往往是最多的。以一个亲善的姿态示人，让尽可能多的人消费得起，既要显现出与主流款式甚至极品款式同根同源，又要毫不隐讳地体现出与二者的巨大差距。当消费“入门款式”的顾客经济条件有了质的飞跃，他们就仿佛中了魔似的会去忠诚地消费更高一级的产品。此刻品牌的最终目的也就达到了。所以价格便宜只是“入门款式”的表象，准确地向人们传达品牌精神才是终极任务。本次介绍的十五款“入门款式”，正是出自于十五个主流重量级品牌之门户，具有鲜明的代表性。
1.卡地亚(Cartier)
山度士Santos系列标准型不锈钢石英表。
外观造型可谓脍炙人口，甚至名曰“白领首选腕表”，不信你可以到香港、东京这样白领云集的城市亲自看看。表的造型早在1904年就已确立，文雅而不失活力，表款背后有关世界航空先驱人物的故事委婉动人。不锈钢材质，具备珠宝首饰级的光辉和制造精度，最关键的是它的价格一直很合理。
2.劳力士(Rolex)
空中霸王Air King系列。
劳力士目前最廉价的产品系列，至今零售价未超越30000元。廉价的主要原因是本款式没有送到瑞士官方天文台(C.O.S.C.)去做认证，省下一笔可观的认证费。而劳力士用事实证明，未经认证的空中霸王系列走时丝毫不逊于其他通过认证的系列，空中霸王系列同时也深受各国劳力士初级玩家的追捧。
3.宝格丽(Bvlgari)
Carbongold系列特别限量版石英计时码表。
或许它是宝格丽最为廉价的表款，却又是宝格丽最难买到的表款。三种贵金属颜色的款式总限量才2997只，有资格购买它的人都是上一年宝格丽的VIP客户。宝格丽借助这种半买半送的形式，向上一年全球范围给予品牌巨大支持的近3000名客户们表示感谢！
4.百达翡丽(Patek Philippe)
卡拉卓华Calatrava系列Ref.5119。
它的前身——Ref.3919是最被表迷尊崇的简单功能表，Ref.5119又进行了更进一步的完善。虽然价格在整个百达翡丽体系中算是最低一类，但它的用户几乎涵盖了世界上所有最顶尖的人群。
5.朗格(A.Lange & Sohne)
Langematik系列大日历表。
这款表的价格依然很昂贵，但比起朗格其它款式还是便宜了不少。因为朗格的全部表款都使用贵金属材质，所以即使是入门款也拥有黄金砌成的身躯。除了大日历，还具备瞬间秒针归零功能，方便使用者对时。
6.萧邦(Chopard)
Mille Miglia系列赛车表。
在欧洲闻名的1,000英里老爷车赛特别开发。橡胶表带被设计成轮胎花纹的模样。自动机械计时机芯，精致打磨的不锈钢表壳
7.万国表(IWC)
柏涛菲诺Portofino系列自动表。
表盘设计异常简洁，毫不拖泥带水，有不锈钢和贵金属两种材质。其中不锈钢款几乎是天下最廉价的顶级正装表，很多人正是通过本款体会到了万国品牌乃至整个顶级钟表领域的精神。
8.天梭(Tissot)
T-Touch系列炫亮钛金属多功能表。
它本身不是天梭品牌的入门款(价格略高)，却被很多初对瑞士钟表感兴趣的爱好者当作瑞士钟表的入门款。钛金属轻盈坚固，经过抛光后亮丽可人，加之神奇的六大触点功能，确实是一款实用与美观结合得非常巧妙的独特表款。
9.艾美(Maurice Lacroix)
奔涛Pontos系列自动单历表。
在众多入门表款的价格中，本表具有强大的竞争力和很高的性价比——机械运作稳定，外观设计既具有德国表的稳重，又不失瑞士表的灵秀。
10.宝玑(Breguet)
Type XX型不锈钢计时码表。
宝玑品牌售价最低的一个系列，但宝玑对待传统外观依然一丝不苟。不仅具有实用的计时码表功能，你同样能欣赏到“钱币边纹”的表壳和诱人的球面蓝宝石水晶表镜。
11.江诗丹顿(Vacheron Constantin)
纵横四海Overseas系列二代不锈钢自动单历表。
它虽只是一款不锈钢表，虽只是一款运动表，但冰清玉洁的金属外观打磨令人叹服。结合江诗丹顿的顶级机芯，仿佛佩戴它后你能去从事的体育运动项目只有驾驶自己的游艇出航。
12.沛纳海(Panerai)
Luminor系列小三针表。
没有过多复杂的功能，拥有沛纳海
13.欧米茄(Omega)
海马Seamaster系列专业潜水表。
它就是《黄金眼》、《明日帝国》等影片中007号间谍佩戴的表——一款非常非常经典的潜水表，人缘极佳。铮铮铁骨可从容应对恶劣环境及300米深的巨大水压，它也是目前世界上市场反应最好的专业潜水表之一。
14.伯爵(Piaget)
1967系列白金正装表。
一颗宝石都没镶嵌的表壳外观，丝毫没有减低它的贵族气质。佩戴它的男人已将儒雅发挥的极致。它不仅是伯爵品牌著名的入门表款，也是男性贵金属正装腕表的典范之作。
15.名士(Baume & Mercier)
Classima系列不锈钢正装表。
它足够大气，选用了性能稳定的古董怀表机芯。而名士针对机芯的重新打磨与修饰亦可圈可点。如果你人高马大，穿西服时可选择配搭这一款表，真是把有限的钱能产生的美学效果发挥到极致了。
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