Saturday, May 25, 2019

Fw: A look at just how fickle stock prices can be




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On Friday, May 24, 2019, 02:03, Steadyhand Blog <info@steadyhand.com> wrote:

A look at just how fickle stock prices can be
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A look at just how fickle stock prices can be

by Scott Ronalds

Stock markets tend to move up and to the right over long periods of time. In the shorter term, the path is much bumpier. Understandably, this can be a turn off for many people. The fact that a company's value can be pulled in any direction based on the mood of investors, rather than the fundamentals of the business itself, is a concept that can be hard to grasp. But such is the perverse nature of investing.

Frequently, these near-term moves have little to do with the underlying operations of a company and more to do with external factors that may have little impact on its long-term fortunes — things like economic headlines, market forecasts, and geopolitical actions.

Indeed, while a company's stock price may gyrate significantly over a month, quarter or year, nothing may have changed within the company itself or with respect to its prospects. As your steady hand, it's our job to see through these price undulations and focus on the long-term prospects of a company. And importantly, we seek to take advantage of temporary mis-pricings where we can.

Let me show you what I mean. CN Rail is a great Canadian company that we've owned for over seven years in our Equity Fund. CN is one of North America's leading railroads, with a network that spans from Halifax to Vancouver and south to the Gulf of Mexico. It transports more than $250 billion worth of goods annually for businesses in a diverse range of industries. The company has grown its revenues and earnings steadily over the past decade and has raised its dividend every year since its IPO in 1995. The stock has been a solid investment for us, doubling in value over the past five years.

It hasn't always been a smooth ride though (pardon the pun). Over the past few years, the stock has dropped more than 10% on three separate occasions. And in the fourth quarter of 2018, it declined nearly 20%. Why the steep fall? Did the value of CN's physical assets fall by one-fifth? Did it suffer a sharp drop in sales? Was it involved in a scandal? No. In fact, there were no material changes to the business itself during this recent decline. Investors were simply in a fearful mood and were selling stocks across the board. Sure enough, CN rebounded more than 30% following the selloff late last year.

Stock Price: CN Rail

Our manager (Fiera Capital) saw this volatility as an opportunity to buy shares in a great company that was on sale. Once confirming that the business was still on solid footing, they bought additional shares in the stock as they felt the price didn't reflect the company's value (they bought shares during previous downturns as well, as indicated by the green circles on the chart).

This is just one example of how stock prices are fickle. They'll move above and below a company's real value in the short term (albeit, a subjective measure), but over the long run they tend to more accurately reflect a business's worth. A key to successful investing is to not overreact to these swings. Easier said than done.




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Thursday, May 23, 2019

Fw: Levitating profit margins




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On Wednesday, May 22, 2019, 02:01, Steadyhand Blog <info@steadyhand.com> wrote:

Levitating profit margins
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Levitating profit margins

Republished courtesy of the National Post
by Tom Bradley

"It's cyclical, stupid."

This rather blunt phrase is one of my most reliable rules of thumb when analyzing investment themes, since most headline-grabbing trends that are dubbed secular, disruptive or even paradigm shifts turn out to be cyclical in nature (that is, periods of prosperity are followed by contraction).

This theory has served me well over the years, but is being tested today when looking at corporate profits in the United States. Since the financial crisis, profit margins have risen to cyclically high levels and managed to stay there. This higher-for-longer trend runs in the face of economic theory, which suggests that high profits attract more competition and, as a result, should come back to normal levels.

It should also be noted that corporate profits are what drive stock prices and, ultimately, investment returns. The remarkable profit cycle we're in is fuelling one of the longest bull markets in history.

There are a number of reasons why my cyclicality motto is being tested.

First, the economic cycle in the U.S. has been extended. Indeed, it's on the verge of being the longest ever, although by no means the strongest. Healthy economic activity provides fertile ground for corporations. Everything works better and is more profitable when there's a steady flow of customers coming through the door.

But revenue growth hasn't been the main driver of profit margins. It's the cost side that has driven that.

Labour, which is the biggest expense for most companies, has been cheap and abundant. Costs have remained in check despite economic growth and low unemployment. Workers have not fully participated in the profit cycle due to technological advances and the continuing trend toward offshoring.

James Montier, a strategist at GMO, a U.S. asset manager, summed it up in a December 2018 report: "Whenever labour productivity outstrips real wages (adjusted for inflation), the result is a falling share of the GDP pie going to labour." He went on to point out that wage increases haven't even kept pace in industries that have had large productivity gains, such as manufacturing.

Companies have also benefited from more free labour. In our do-it-on-your-phone society, they've been able to offload more tasks onto willing customers without any corresponding price reduction.

But labour hasn't been the only low-cost input. Capital has also been cheap and plentiful. Companies can borrow as much as they want at low interest rates. This improves the economics of new projects and acquisitions, and makes share buybacks a reliable profit-enhancing strategy.

Also boosting profits are corporate tax rates that have stayed low (or declined) due to government policies and ever-increasing cross-border creativity. And, so far, companies have not been required to fully pay for their impact on the environment.

The one factor that's not talked about enough is consolidation. After three decades of frenetic merger activity, all industries have fewer players and many have moved into the oligopoly category (a state of limited competition).

Think about sectors that now have two or three dominant players: railroads, telecom, oil services, banking, wealth management, life insurance and media. There are no weak competitors slashing prices to gain market share.

Beyond the emerging oligopolies are a number of monopolies created by new technologies: Google LLC in search, Facebook Inc. in social media and Amazon.com Inc. in online retail.

It's telling that research on trends in corporate communications (annual reports, press releases and the like) reveals that the number of times the words "competitor" and "competition" are being used has plummeted. The business world is more civil than it used to be.

Some of the forces outlined above will (eventually) prove to be cyclical. Labour shortages are becoming more common. Tariff wars and protectionism are making offshore manufacturing riskier. There's increasing demand for corporations to pay their fair share of taxes. And in the Western world, the push to make companies better stewards of the planet is gaining momentum.

Profits will be cyclical, too. Even if margins have found higher ground, they're guaranteed to dip during economic slowdowns.




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Saturday, May 18, 2019

Fw: The bond beater: An update on our Income Fund




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The bond beater: An update on our Income Fund
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The bond beater: An update on our Income Fund

by Scott Ronalds

Rarely is there a dull day in the stock markets these days. Especially with a Twitter-happy American president, new wave of "unicorn" IPOs, abundance of mergers & acquisitions, and mounting tensions in the Middle East.

But this piece is about an asset class less flashy — bonds. More specifically, it's an update on our Income Fund.

As a refresher, the Income Fund is a diversified portfolio of bonds (75% target weight) and dividend-paying stocks (25%). We structured the fund this way with the goal of providing bond-beating returns over the medium to long term (which it's done over the past 3, 5, and 10 years) along with a more well-rounded stream of income. Some of our retired clients use it as a "paycheque" fund and it's also the largest holding in our Founders Fund.

While bonds don't get the same attention that stocks do, it's interesting times in bondland nonetheless and an update is timely.

After steadily raising interest rates last year, the Bank of Canada has pumped the brakes this year and bond yields have fallen back, leading to strong returns over the past six months (recall that when yields fall, bond prices rise). The 10-year Government of Canada benchmark bond yield reached 2.6% last October but has fallen to 1.7% today. This may not sound like much of a decline, but it's a big move in a low rate environment. In fact, it's led to a 6.3% gain in the bond market over the six months ending April 30th. This type of return isn't sustainable with rates as low as they are, so we're more cautious than normal.

We've had the fund positioned quite defensively over the past few quarters, as our manager (Connor, Clark & Lunn) has felt that bond yields aren't particularly attractive and risks are building in some segments of the market, notably the corporate sector. Global economic growth is slowing which could spell trouble for more leveraged companies (those with high amounts of debt). More recently, we've "buttoned down" the fund even further. Here's what this means in plain English:

  • We have a larger-than-normal position in Government of Canada bonds, which now make up 30% of the fund (in the past, they've comprised less than 5%). These securities offer lower yields than other types of bonds, but they provide the greatest safety. As Tom said in a recent post, government bonds are the best diversifier a portfolio can have.
  • The fund's weighting in corporate bonds is close to an all-time low (25%). Our focus here is on high-quality companies such as utilities (e.g. Hydro One) and banks.
  • High yield bonds make up only 2% of the fund, which is also close to an all-time low. What's more, our high yield investments are focused on higher-rated securities (we're giving up some yield for greater safety) and those that have good liquidity, meaning they're easy to buy and sell.
  • Stocks make up 22% of the fund, which is modestly below our long-term target.
  • Our stock strategy has become more defensive, with a focus on larger, more stable companies. Examples include food retailers such as Loblaw Companies and Metro, telecoms including Rogers and Telus, and utilities such as Fortis and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners.

The fund is more positioned for capital preservation than growth right now. It's still earning a steady stream of income from diversified sources (federal & provincial bonds, corporate & high yield bonds, dividend stocks, and real estate investment trusts), but we're less likely to see similar price gains in the fund's bond investments than we did over the past half year (the fund gained 7.0% after fees over the 6 months ending April 30th).

We're confident that the Income Fund will continue to be a bond beater going forward. Our caveat to investors, though, is that it may not take much to beat bonds in a world of low interest rates.

Management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns.




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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Fw: Beware of 'unpredictable diversification'




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On Tuesday, May 7, 2019, 02:01, Steadyhand Blog <info@steadyhand.com> wrote:

Beware of 'unpredictable diversification'
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Beware of 'unpredictable diversification'

Republished courtesy of the National Post
by Tom Bradley

When stock markets are hitting new highs, there always seem to be more articles on downside protection. Which stocks will hold up when the rocket ride ends? Is there an industry that does better in tough times? Are ETFs a good place to hide?

There might be a stock or industry that does better but, short of timing the market and selling everything, a portfolio that's designed to grow with the markets will also retreat with the markets. There are no free lunches in investing.

There is one strategy, however, that comes close. By owning a broad mix of assets, you can smooth out your returns and eliminate the risk of permanent capital loss, without meaningfully reducing your long-term growth. Diversification doesn't eliminate the downside, but it softens the blows and ensures that you'll recover.

David Swensen, chief investment officer at Yale University, puts it this way in his book, Unconventional Success: "Diversification demands that each asset class receive a weighting large enough to matter, but small enough not to matter too much."

Building wealth

Every investor should be diversified, but not for the same reasons. For those who are building their wealth and have an emphasis on growth, the primary reason is to avoid a permanent loss of capital. A smoother ride feels nice, but isn't necessary. Indeed, accumulators should celebrate when stocks are down. They're buyers, not sellers.

But a significant hit to capital can put a dint in even the longest retirement plan. It's harder to recover if your portfolio goes off the rails because it's focused on one type of stock (i.e. technology, cannabis, banks) or perhaps real estate in one city.

Spending your money

Retired investors don't want to impair their capital either, but they also have to care about volatility. They're drawing a paychecque from their portfolio and don't want to sell when prices are down.

For this reason, de-accumulators need to go beyond stocks and hold other asset classes like cash, GICs and bonds for stability and income. Unfortunately, it's in this area where portfolios are less diversified today. I say that because they're holding fewer government bonds which are the most reliable diversifier there is.

When stocks are in freefall, you can be assured that interest rates are dropping and therefore, the value of government bonds is increasing. When stocks melted down in 2008, government bonds went up in price as they did during the downdrafts in 2011, 2016 and 2018 (Note: Cash and GICs also held their value but didn't appreciate).

Extremely low interest rates are prompting investors to look for securities and funds that carry a higher yield. In lieu of GICs and government bonds, they're holding riskier fixed-income securities, preferred shares and even dividend-paying stocks such as banks, utilities and REITs.

These are all valid investments and play a role in our portfolios, but they don't provide the same diversification. Take high-yield bonds for instance. In an economic slowdown when government bonds are rising, junk bonds (as they're known) are likely going the other way. In uncertain times, buyers demand a higher yield on riskier assets, which pushes prices down.

Historically, high-yield bonds have performed more in line with the stock market than the bond market. Dividend stocks are even more closely linked to the stock market. They're stocks after all.

Unpredictable diversification

To fill the gap, there's a growing number of exotic products that claim to have low correlation to stocks. In other words, their price movement isn't linked to what the stock market is doing. These 'absolute return' funds focus on generating a positive return by using a number of hedge fund strategies including shorting and arbitrage.

But there's a catch (beyond their high fees). The relationship to stocks is unpredictable. A fund might perform well in a market swoon, but it might not. These products provide what I call "unpredictable diversification."

Swensen says that if you're holding bonds for the purpose of diversification, they should only be government bonds. I won't go that far but, suffice to say, being measured and balanced is important. When you give up on high quality bonds and GICs in search of higher yield, know that you're playing offence, not defence.




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Copyright © 2019 Steadyhand Investment Management Ltd., All rights reserved.
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