| Dear Subscriber, Since its low in March 2009 the S&P 500 Index has doubled. Last week The Wall Street Journal stated that it was the fastest doubling since 1936. That rally began in March 1935 and reached the 100 percent gain mark in 501 days. The red vertical line in the chart below depicts the start of the rally. This time the market needed a bit longer to double ... 707 days. What the Journal did not mention was what happened afterwards. Let's fill that gap, since the rest of this story is as interesting as the first part ... Immediately after the index doubled in 1936 a short-term correction followed. But then the rally reassured itself. It lasted another seven months and gained 15 percent. However, that was the end of the party as you can see in top panel of the chart. The S&P 500 experienced 40 percent slump the following year. But the final low of this bear market came as late as 1942. Many analysts conclude that 1942 marked the real end of the Great Depression. 
An Interesting Analogy I see an interesting analogy here since the bull market of 1936-1937 followed the most severe financial crisis in U.S. history, and the current rally follows the second-most severe one. In 1936 hopes ran high that the crisis was over and a sustainable recovery had started. But as it turned out the economic slump was only interrupted. Another grave economic downturn started in May 1937 and lasted until June 1938 with GDP declining 3.4 percent. Only the outbreak of WWII put an end to the Great Depression. | Internal Sponsorship | Safety — with a BIG income kicker! | | Hundreds of readers have filled our inboxes and blogs with one, not-so-simple question: "Isn't there a strategy that allows me to participate in this rally WITHOUT losing my profits or maybe even part of my principal if the market declines?" There IS a safety-first strategy that's so effective, investors who used it could have escaped unscathed — without losing a single penny — when stocks plunged in the great credit crisis of 2007-2008. We give you all the details on this strategy in the brand-new video presentation we just posted online. | As in 1936 hopes are again running high that the Great Recession and the associated crisis is over and that a sustainable rally has started. This may also turn out to be a false hope. Why? Well, the underlying problems of overindebtedness have not been solved — not even addressed. Quite to the contrary. All that has happened is the government stepping in and shifting some of the most pressing debt loads of financial institutions from the private sector to the public sector. That's not a solution; it's kicking the can down the road! Fundamental Valuations Are High Now look at the middle and bottom panels of the above chart. The middle one shows the price/earnings ratio, the second one dividend yields. Both are time honored measures of valuation. First you can easily see that current valuations are very high. Then compare 1937 to today. In 1937 the price earnings ratio was a tad lower than now. But the dividend yield was higher at 3 percent then vs. 1.7 percent today. Obviously, the stock market is no healthier now than it was in 1937. Let's summarize the main points: In the mid-1930s the stock market and the economy were recovering from a major crisis, and the stock market was clearly overvalued. The majority of market participants and economists were sure a sustainable recovery had just begun. Their hopes were quickly dashed. Will it be different this time around? Probably not because we're in the same boat today: Recovering from a major crisis, an overvalued stock market and high expectations. Plus there are other signs warning of a high risk environment ... Fund Managers Fully Invested,
Short Interest Drops;
Insiders Selling Stock! First, mutual fund managers are again fully invested with an average cash quote of a mere 3.5 percent. This is the lowest reading since this data series began in 1988. Only once before — in March/April 2010, just before a 20 percent correction — has this indicator been so low. Even at the major highs of March 2000 and October 2007 fund managers were more cautious than now. | Internal Sponsorship | Just released: New book
by Martin D. Weiss! | | Dr. Weiss has just released his new book — The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression — and already it has soared to the top of the charts on Amazon. Dr. Weiss shows you why Washington bailouts have not prevented a new debt crisis ... what REALLY can happen if your bank fails ... 5 ways to spot the real bottom in stocks ... the best time to buy gold ... alternative ETFs for reaping wealth in the worst of times ... and much MUCH more! Click here to learn more. | Second, the NYSE Short Interest Ratio has fallen from 4.1 in December to a very low 2.6. This ratio measures the total outstanding shares sold short divided by the average daily volume for the last month. Its interpretation is twofold ... A low short interest ratio is a sign of widespread bullishness or at least complacency. Even more important is the fact that short sellers are potential buyers in case of a market slump. To realize their gains they have to buy back the shares sold short. So the massive decline in shares sold short means there will be fewer buyers in the future. Third, financial insiders are massively selling the stocks of their companies. Alan Newman of Crosscurrents shows that 68 sellers were matched by just four buyers. And the ratio of shares sold to shares bought was 855. So why are the insiders of Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, American Express, Citigroup, and US Bancorp selling like mad? They apparently have some doubts in the health of the current rally — at least insofar their own money is concerned. You don't have to sit on the sidelines if the market takes the header I see coming ... One way to profit from a declining market is with an inverse ETF, like ProShares Short S&P500 (SH). This fund seeks daily investment results that correspond to the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P 500 Index. That means you stand to make 1 percent for every 1 percent the Index drops. Want another pointer? Get a copy of my new book, The Global Debt Trap. You'll learn more critical background information about asset bubbles, money printing, opportunistic central bankers, and government debt and what this all means for your financial health. Click on your choice of bookseller to order it online — Amazon, Barnes & Noble or Books-A-Million — or stop by your nearest bookstore. Best wishes, Claus
Claus Vogt is the editor of the German edition of Safe Money. He is the co-author of the German bestseller, Das Greenspan Dossier, where he predicted, well ahead of time, the sequence of events that have unfolded since, including the U.S. housing bust, the U.S. recession, the demise of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the financial system crisis. Claus is currently the editor of Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio and has just completed his book The Global Debt Trap.
About Money and Markets For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include John Burke, Marci Campbell, Amber Dakar, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig. Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph: This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com. From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select third-party advertisers known as "external sponsorships." We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions. View our Privacy Policy. Would you like to unsubscribe from our mailing list? To make sure you don't miss our urgent updates, add Weiss Research to your address book. Just follow these simple steps. | © 2011 by Weiss Research, Inc. All rights reserved. | 15430 Endeavour Drive, Jupiter, FL 33478 |
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周四，反抗者全面威胁卡扎菲的大本营。反对派领导人说他们已经准备进攻首都的黎波里，而的黎波里的居民也准备在周五举行首次大规模示威游行。
新西兰克赖斯特彻奇两天前发生地震后，300人仍下落不明，解救他们的希望也日渐渺茫。周四，确认死亡人数攀升至92人。
视频：阿桑奇被裁决引渡瑞典
